there's still time

but for how long?

Thank you Croissanthology for inspiring this post. Go read theirs as well, it’s good.

maybe a year or two!

I’m currently doing “bugwoman” week. The idea was I would buy a claude pro subscription and go all in on using it for basically everything, then, on the second week, I would use no AI tools whatsoever. I am literally not sure if I will manage that now.

It was this generation of models that did it for me, opus 4.5 and gemini 3: “fuck, the world really is going to be unrecognizable soon”. I mean this truly. Coding is the canary in the coalmine. The models are funny now.

I’m not here to give opinions how it happens, frankly, I don’t care: breakthroughs, scaling, singularity, whatever. These models are super smart, even if they are ghosts or whatever. We are building so, so much more compute, even if no major breakthroughs happen, we can just keep scaling. I was wrong, nothing is “milked”. This is the worst they will ever be, we have not seen anything.

Take even the most pessimistic AI bear on the planet in 2020, show them Gemini 3 pro and they won’t believe that you don’t consider this “AGI”, if they don’t have a heart attack right then and there.

Not even just LLMs. The fact that waymos are just… driving around… Do you really think it will take long before they are everywhere? How long?

this is a real picture (all the white cars are waymos)

No one can tell what is real or not. I WANT TO PICK YOU UP AND SHAKE YOU: NO. ONE. CAN. TELL. WHAT. IS. REAL. OR. NOT

And people speak of bubbles: it won’t matter, let nvidia stock crash and burn. Inference is in the billions, people will never stop using. It all feels inevitable.

You are probably 20-30 years old reading this. If you’re lucky, you’ll see 2070. Think about 2070. Remember that waymo is 16 years old (just old enough to drive, it seems). ChatGPT was 3 fucking years ago.

Everything got so normal so fast, I genuinely believe we are at a precipice.

I don’t know what precipice but frankly, I am terrified.

And I have no agency: I feel stuck and stupid finishing a masters degree in fucking Belgium.

I really really wish I had some sort of stake in making it happen, or go well. I just… really want to be in the room. I don’t know why. Maybe I want to be immortal or something. I am done over-intellectualizing my emotions. Incredible things are happening and I just do not want to be on the sideline.

There is no rule saying we’ll make it. There is no rule saying there will be work for you. There is no rule saying that governments have to start UBI programs.

It is still the great savanna, we are still clueless monkeys, but now there’s waymos.

Strap in friends, we’re on a rollercoaster no one has ever ridden before: maybe it’s really fun, maybe it kills us.